Eastbourne Borough 2-1 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.48
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 26% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.2pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eastbourne Borough EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 46%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.43/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.16
+9% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eastbourne Borough
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Farnborough
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.08.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 1-1 HT 1-0 Eastbourne Borough Eastbourne Borough İCON
18.02.2023 Eastbourne Borough Eastbourne Borough 2-0 HT 0-0 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
08.11.2022 Farnborough Farnborough 0-0 HT 0-0 Eastbourne Borough Eastbourne Borough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eastbourne Borough
2-1
AWAY Farnborough
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Eastbourne Borough vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eastbourne Borough edged past Farnborough 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Farnborough at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Eastbourne Borough had 49% of the ball to Farnborough's 51%, shots finished 8-11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Eastbourne Borough had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Eastbourne Borough and 0.33 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of Eastbourne Borough vs Farnborough?

Eastbourne Borough 2-1 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eastbourne Borough vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Eastbourne Borough 31%, draw 27%, Farnborough 42%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Farnborough), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Farnborough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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