Pisa 2-3 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Jan 2024

Pisa
2-3 HT 1-3
Spezia
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Pisa vs Spezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.19
6+ Goals
10%
20.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.06
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
17%
4.59
X/2
13%
6.53
X/X
16%
4.11
2/1
10%
28.5
2/2
11%
5.02
2/X
7%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.9pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pisa v Spezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pisa EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.32/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.03
-9% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
273 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
22.5 Crosses 19.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Pisa vs Spezia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pisa
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Spezia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.84 xG 1.18
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
227 Passes 342
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
11 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Spezia Spezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
29.06.2020 Spezia Spezia 1-2 HT 1-1 Pisa Pisa İTB
09.11.2019 Pisa Pisa 3-2 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
13.05.2017 Spezia Spezia 0-0 HT 0-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
24.12.2016 Pisa Pisa 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
25.05.2008 Pisa Pisa 1-0 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB

Pisa 2-3 Spezia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pisa
2-3
AWAY Spezia
2.59 xG 0.96
65% Ball Possession 35%
27 Total Shots 6
12 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 0
405 Passes 178
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
45 Box Touches 15
36 Crosses 6
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pisa vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia squeezed past Pisa 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Pisa at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pisa had 65% of the ball to Spezia's 35%, shots finished 27-6, expected goals 2.59 to 0.96 — on chances, Pisa could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pisa had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pisa and 0.50 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Pisa vs Spezia?

Pisa 2-3 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pisa vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pisa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Pisa 43%, draw 28%, Spezia 30%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pisa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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