Holywell 4-1 Gresford Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.27
Draw
18%
5.28
Away
13%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
74%
-5.5pp
18%
Draw
16%
+2.3pp
13%
Away Win
10%
+3.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holywell EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Gresford Athletic EU Bookmakers 12%
+8% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
2.34/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/1.95
-10% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -66% / +31%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
473 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holywell
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Gresford Athletic
2.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.20
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.01.2024 Gresford Athletic Gresford Athletic 0-5 HT 0-1 Holywell Holywell GALFAW
21.01.2023 Holywell Holywell 2-0 HT 1-0 Gresford Athletic Gresford Athletic GALFAW
24.09.2022 Gresford Athletic Gresford Athletic 1-2 HT 1-0 Holywell Holywell GALFAW
12.03.2022 Holywell Holywell 4-0 HT 4-0 Gresford Athletic Gresford Athletic GALFAW
01.10.2021 Gresford Athletic Gresford Athletic 0-0 HT 0-0 Holywell Holywell GALFAW
POST-MATCH Holywell vs Gresford Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holywell ran out comfortable winners over Gresford Athletic 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Holywell as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Holywell had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.60 goals for Holywell and 0.20 for Gresford Athletic.

What was the final score of Holywell vs Gresford Athletic?

Holywell 4-1 Gresford Athletic in the Wales - FAW Championship on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holywell vs Gresford Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Holywell win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Holywell 69%, draw 18%, Gresford Athletic 13%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Holywell), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Holywell) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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