Harrogate Town 1-4 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 27 Feb 2024

Harrogate Town
1-4 HT 0-2
Newport County
📅27/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Harrogate Town vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.2
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 31% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.53
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
15%
5.3
X/2
11%
5.8
X/X
11%
4.44
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
16%
4.0
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
39%
+2.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.5pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.3pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Harrogate Town v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.45/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.09
+5% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
293 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 65%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.0 Crosses 18.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9

Harrogate Town vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Harrogate Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Newport County
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.88 xG 1.47
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
296 Passes 202
66% Pass Accuracy 58%
16 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Newport County Newport County 1-2 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
25.04.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-3 HT 1-2 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
27.08.2022 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-4 HT 0-4 Newport County Newport County İN2
15.01.2022 Newport County Newport County 4-0 HT 2-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
10.09.2021 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 2-2 HT 2-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
30.01.2021 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2

Harrogate Town 1-4 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Harrogate Town
1-4
AWAY Newport County
0.90 xG 2.57
61% Ball Possession 39%
7 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 8
407 Passes 211
79% Pass Accuracy 64%
15 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Harrogate Town vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County swept aside Harrogate Town 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Harrogate Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Harrogate Town had 61% of the ball to Newport County's 39%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.90 to 2.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Harrogate Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Harrogate Town and 2.33 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Harrogate Town vs Newport County?

Harrogate Town 1-4 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harrogate Town vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Harrogate Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Harrogate Town 42%, draw 25%, Newport County 34%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Harrogate Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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