Swindon Town 3-1 Tranmere Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 27 Feb 2024

Swindon Town
3-1 HT 2-1
Tranmere Rovers
📅27/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Swindon Town vs Tranmere Rovers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
40%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.71
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.27
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
9%
5.22
X/2
17%
6.11
X/X
10%
4.86
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
2/2
17%
4.07
2/X
8%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-5.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
40%
Away Win
33%
+6.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.4pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swindon Town v Tranmere Rovers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tranmere Rovers EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.21/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.08
+7% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +35%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
250 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 67%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
18.7 Crosses 22.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Swindon Town vs Tranmere Rovers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Tranmere Rovers
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.87 xG 1.46
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
425 Passes 241
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.12.2023 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 2-1 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
10.04.2023 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
12.11.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
08.02.2022 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 3-0 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
17.08.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
19.01.2019 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 1-2 HT 0-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2

Swindon Town 3-1 Tranmere Rovers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
3-1
AWAY Tranmere Rovers
2.55 xG 0.59
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
375 Passes 295
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Tranmere Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town saw off Tranmere Rovers 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Swindon Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Swindon Town had 54% of the ball to Tranmere Rovers's 46%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 2.55 to 0.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tranmere Rovers led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Swindon Town and 1.33 for Tranmere Rovers.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Tranmere Rovers?

Swindon Town 3-1 Tranmere Rovers in the England - 2nd Division on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Tranmere Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tranmere Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 35%, draw 25%, Tranmere Rovers 40%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tranmere Rovers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tranmere Rovers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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