Notts County 3-4 Sutton United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 27 Feb 2024

Notts County
3-4 HT 2-2
Sutton United
📅27/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Notts County vs Sutton United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.9
2-3 Goals
42%
1.94
4-5 Goals
24%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
7.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.9 — our 23% vs market 15.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
20%
4.33
X/2
8%
9.26
X/X
13%
5.94
2/1
9%
20.6
2/2
9%
6.26
2/X
7%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.6pp
23%
Away Win
23%
-0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Sutton United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sutton United EU Bookmakers 26%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -27%
1.83/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.49
+50% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -22%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
437 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 70%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
20.4 Crosses 16.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Notts County vs Sutton United Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Sutton United
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
05.08.2023 Sutton United Sutton United 5-1 HT 2-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
04.05.2021 Notts County Notts County 3-2 HT 1-1 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL
13.10.2020 Sutton United Sutton United 0-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL
07.12.2019 Notts County Notts County 1-1 HT 1-0 Sutton United Sutton United İBSL
07.09.2019 Sutton United Sutton United 1-1 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL

Notts County 3-4 Sutton United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
3-4
AWAY Sutton United
2.12 xG 3.03
66% Ball Possession 34%
13 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 9
424 Passes 166
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
28 Box Touches 25
28 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Sutton United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sutton United edged past Notts County 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Notts County at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Notts County had 66% of the ball to Sutton United's 34%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 2.12 to 3.03.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Notts County had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Notts County and 1.80 for Sutton United.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Sutton United?

Notts County 3-4 Sutton United in the England - 2nd Division on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Sutton United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Notts County 50%, draw 27%, Sutton United 23%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Notts County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Notts County) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
27 Feb 2024
22:45 Walsall vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →
22:45 Salford City vs Colchester Analysis →
22:45 Swindon Town vs Tranmere Rovers Analysis →
22:45 Harrogate Town vs Newport County Analysis →
22:45 Forest Green Rovers vs Wrexham Analysis →