Palermo 2-3 Ternana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Feb 2024

📅27/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.53
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.09
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.88
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
11%
16.4
X/1
17%
3.78
X/2
7%
11.75
X/X
7%
6.22
2/1
8%
21.2
2/2
9%
8.83
2/X
9%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
61%
-13.3pp
27%
Draw
21%
+5.5pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palermo EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Ternana EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -10%
1.65/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.84
-2% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 71%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
27.4 Crosses 20.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palermo
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Ternana
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.70 xG 1.23
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
356 Passes 269
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 Ternana Ternana 1-1 HT 0-1 Palermo Palermo İTB
28.02.2023 Palermo Palermo 0-0 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
08.10.2022 Ternana Ternana 3-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTB
03.02.2021 Palermo Palermo 1-1 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTC
07.10.2020 Ternana Ternana 0-0 HT 0-0 Palermo Palermo İTC
05.05.2018 Ternana Ternana 2-3 HT 0-2 Palermo Palermo İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palermo
2-3
AWAY Ternana
0.44 xG 1.67
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
438 Passes 286
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palermo vs Ternana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ternana edged past Palermo 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Palermo at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Palermo had 58% of the ball to Ternana's 42%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 0.44 to 1.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ternana's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Palermo and 1.17 for Ternana.

What was the final score of Palermo vs Ternana?

Palermo 2-3 Ternana in the Italy - Serie B on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palermo vs Ternana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palermo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Palermo 48%, draw 27%, Ternana 25%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Palermo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palermo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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