Astrio 0-1 Varbergs GIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-1.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.2pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Astrio EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Varbergs GIF EU Bookmakers 29%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
2.49/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/2.60
+27% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Astrio
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Varbergs GIF
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 10
0 Yellow Cards 4
25.08.2023 Varbergs GIF Varbergs GIF 2-0 HT 2-0 Astrio Astrio İSÇ4
28.04.2023 Astrio Astrio 3-2 HT 0-0 Varbergs GIF Varbergs GIF İSÇ4
03.09.2022 Astrio Astrio 2-1 HT 1-1 Varbergs GIF Varbergs GIF İSÇ4
25.09.2021 Astrio Astrio 4-0 HT 2-0 Varbergs GIF Varbergs GIF İSÇ4
27.06.2021 Varbergs GIF Varbergs GIF 3-1 HT 1-0 Astrio Astrio İSÇ4
POST-MATCH Astrio vs Varbergs GIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varbergs GIF nicked a narrow win over Astrio 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Astrio at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Astrio had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Astrio and 1.60 for Varbergs GIF.

What was the final score of Astrio vs Varbergs GIF?

Astrio 0-1 Varbergs GIF in the Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Astrio vs Varbergs GIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Astrio win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Astrio 50%, draw 22%, Varbergs GIF 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Astrio) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Astrio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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