Pau 1-2 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 27 Apr 2024

Pau
1-2 HT 0-1
Guingamp
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.16
6+ Goals
9%
20.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 32% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.09
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
11%
5.69
X/2
13%
5.27
X/X
14%
4.09
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
16%
3.68
2/X
9%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-3.5pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pau EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.37/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.15
+12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +26%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
19.9 Crosses 17.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pau
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Guingamp
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.48 xG 1.69
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 439
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 4-0 HT 2-0 Pau Pau FR2
22.04.2023 Pau Pau 2-1 HT 1-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
30.07.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 4-0 HT 3-0 Pau Pau FR2
19.04.2022 Guingamp Guingamp 3-0 HT 2-0 Pau Pau FR2
20.11.2021 Pau Pau 2-0 HT 1-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
30.01.2021 Guingamp Guingamp 2-3 HT 0-2 Pau Pau FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pau
1-2
AWAY Guingamp
0.49 xG 2.54
65% Ball Possession 35%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
522 Passes 251
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 29
34 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pau vs Guingamp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guingamp squeezed past Pau 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 32% / 37% — and on the day Guingamp made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pau had 65% of the ball to Guingamp's 35%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.49 to 2.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Guingamp's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pau and 2.33 for Guingamp.

What was the final score of Pau vs Guingamp?

Pau 1-2 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pau vs Guingamp?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Pau 32%, draw 32%, Guingamp 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guingamp) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guingamp) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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