Pianese 2-3 Arezzo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
37%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.02
6+ Goals
9%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 31% vs market 30.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
27%
+8.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
37%
Away Win
46%
-8.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pianese EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Arezzo EU Bookmakers 49%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
2.20/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.96
+108% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +5%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
183 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pianese
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Arezzo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 3
15.12.2024 Arezzo Arezzo 4-2 HT 2-1 Pianese Pianese İTC
12.01.2020 Arezzo Arezzo 0-0 HT 0-0 Pianese Pianese İTC
31.08.2019 Pianese Pianese 1-0 HT 1-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pianese
2-3
AWAY Arezzo
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pianese vs Arezzo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arezzo nicked a narrow win over Pianese 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Arezzo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pianese had 52% of the ball to Arezzo's 48%, shots finished 9-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pianese and 1.33 for Arezzo.

What was the final score of Pianese vs Arezzo?

Pianese 2-3 Arezzo in the Italy - Serie C on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pianese vs Arezzo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arezzo win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Pianese 36%, draw 27%, Arezzo 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arezzo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arezzo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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