Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.2
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 29% vs market 26.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.3
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
13%
5.25
X/2
19%
6.55
X/X
13%
4.44
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
11%
4.66
2/X
5%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Austria Wien EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -4%
1.36/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.44
-6% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
330 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 73%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
22.1 Crosses 17.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Austria Wien
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.38 xG 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
268 Passes 280
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.04.2025 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
07.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 1-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
01.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVK
25.09.2024 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
02.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 2-0 Austria Wien Austria Wien AUK
29.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
0-1
AWAY Austria Wien
1.44 xG 1.31
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
153 Passes 300
62% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 34
22 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austria Wien nicked a narrow win over Sturm Graz 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Austria Wien found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 39% of the ball to Austria Wien's 61%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.44 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Austria Wien led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.50 for Austria Wien.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien?

Sturm Graz 0-1 Austria Wien in the Austria - Bundesliga on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Austria Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 38%, draw 27%, Austria Wien 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sturm Graz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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