Austria Wien 2-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
29%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.82
Over 2.5
38%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.7
No
57%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
18%
3.7
6+ Goals
8%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 34% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.96
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
15%
6.03
X/2
13%
5.89
X/X
17%
4.42
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
9%
3.81
2/X
7%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+3.9pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.7pp
29%
Away Win
36%
-6.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
51%
+10.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
49%
-10.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
55%
-11.9pp
57%
BTTS No
45%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austria Wien EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 39%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -13%
1.58/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.59
+15% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
293 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
22.2 Crosses 17.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austria Wien
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.09 xG 1.66
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
300 Passes 269
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 1-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
01.02.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-2 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVK
25.09.2024 Austria Wien Austria Wien 2-2 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
02.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 2-0 Austria Wien Austria Wien AUK
29.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-1 HT 0-1 Austria Wien Austria Wien AVU
30.07.2023 Austria Wien Austria Wien 0-3 HT 0-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austria Wien
2-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
2.06 xG 0.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
219 Passes 263
67% Pass Accuracy 70%
34 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austria Wien nicked a narrow win over Sturm Graz 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 29%) promised a tight game; Austria Wien found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Austria Wien had 46% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 54%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 2.06 to 0.55 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Austria Wien's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Austria Wien and 1.50 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Austria Wien 2-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Austria Wien win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Austria Wien 40%, draw 31%, Sturm Graz 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Austria Wien) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Austria Wien) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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