MTK Budapest 2-3 Ferencvaros — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
44%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.18
Over
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
26%
4.11
2-3
41%
1.85
4-5
23%
2.88
6+
10%
8.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
21%
+9.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.9pp
44%
Away Win
56%
-12.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Ferencvaros EU Bookmakers 61%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.51/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.96/0.86
-37% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
13.1 Crosses 23.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Ferencvaros
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.69 xG 2.43
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
314 Passes 498
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 38
7 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.04.2025 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 3-1 HT 1-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MACK
02.02.2025 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 0-0 HT 0-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
20.09.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-3 HT 1-2 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
28.04.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-2 HT 1-2 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
06.02.2024 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 5-1 HT 1-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
30.09.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-6 HT 1-2 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
2-3
AWAY Ferencvaros
1.61 xG 2.03
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 12
326 Passes 314
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs Ferencvaros
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ferencvaros edged past MTK Budapest 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ferencvaros as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 50% of the ball to Ferencvaros's 50%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 1.61 to 2.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ferencvaros led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for MTK Budapest and 3.17 for Ferencvaros.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs Ferencvaros?

MTK Budapest 2-3 Ferencvaros in the Hungary - NB I on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs Ferencvaros?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ferencvaros win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 30%, draw 26%, Ferencvaros 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ferencvaros), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ferencvaros) ✓ BTTS Yes
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