Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Leones Negros Udeg v Tepatitlán de Morelos — Team-Based Signals
Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Leones Negros Udeg
MEK2
0-1
HT 0-1
Leones Negros Udeg
MEK2
Leones Negros Udeg edged past Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Leones Negros Udeg as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 0.83 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.
What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Leones Negros Udeg 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 50%, draw 25%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.