Cruz Azul 4-1 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Apr 2026

📅27/04/2026 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.29
Draw
16%
5.15
Away
12%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.61
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.4
2-3 Goals
42%
1.97
4-5 Goals
24%
2.48
6+ Goals
12%
5.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
73%
-1.2pp
16%
Draw
16%
-0.2pp
12%
Away Win
11%
+1.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -15%
2.07/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.87
-6% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -10%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
433 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 76%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
25.3 Crosses 15.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Necaxa
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.60 xG 1.16
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
430 Passes 187
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
29.01.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 1-3 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
06.10.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-0 HT 2-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
17.03.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 1-2 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
05.10.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-3 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
22.01.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
4-1
AWAY Necaxa
1.11 xG 1.15
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
405 Passes 342
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 12
8 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul cruised past Necaxa 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 53% of the ball to Necaxa's 47%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.11 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.00 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Necaxa?

Cruz Azul 4-1 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 27/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 72%, draw 16%, Necaxa 12%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Over 2.5
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