Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 27 Apr 2026

📅27/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.33
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.32
6+ Goals
9%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 28% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.08
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.1
X/1
10%
5.18
X/2
12%
6.75
X/X
10%
4.55
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
13%
4.66
2/X
10%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.1pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alanyaspor EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / +3%
1.48/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.30
-6% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
20.6 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alanyaspor
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Samsunspor
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.87 xG 0.91
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
370 Passes 339
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2025 Samsunspor Samsunspor 1-1 HT 1-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
21.04.2025 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 1-0 HT 1-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
24.11.2024 Samsunspor Samsunspor 1-1 HT 1-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
18.05.2024 Samsunspor Samsunspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
17.01.2024 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 1-3 HT 1-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
25.12.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 3-1 HT 2-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alanyaspor
2-3
AWAY Samsunspor
1.10 xG 1.54
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 7
12 Corners 5
330 Passes 351
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samsunspor squeezed past Alanyaspor 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Alanyaspor at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Alanyaspor had 48% of the ball to Samsunspor's 52%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.10 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alanyaspor had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Alanyaspor and 1.17 for Samsunspor.

What was the final score of Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?

Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor in the Turkey - Super League on 27/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alanyaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Alanyaspor 44%, draw 26%, Samsunspor 30%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Alanyaspor), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Alanyaspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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