Cherno More Varna 2-1 Botev Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 27 Jul 2025

📅27/07/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-7.5pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.3pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.8pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 27%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.94/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.25
-25% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.04.2025 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-1 HT 0-1 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
25.10.2024 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 1-0 HT 1-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
31.03.2024 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-0 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
26.09.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 1-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
2-1
AWAY Botev Plovdiv
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna nicked a narrow win over Botev Plovdiv 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 30% — and on the day Cherno More Varna made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 51% of the ball to Botev Plovdiv's 49%, shots finished 13-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cherno More Varna and 0.50 for Botev Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv?

Cherno More Varna 2-1 Botev Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Botev Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 40%, draw 30%, Botev Plovdiv 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
27 Jul 2025
21:15 Septemvri Sofia vs Levski Sofia Analysis →
22:00 Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Analysis →