27/09/2024
·
21:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-2
2nd Score
2-1
Farsta vs Arlanda Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
32%
2/X
10%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
27%
Draw
21%
45%
Away Win
57%
48%
Under 2.5
34%
52%
Over 2.5
66%
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
45%
BTTS No
36%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Farsta v Arlanda — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Farsta
EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY
Arlanda
EU Bookmakers 61%
-36% /
-36%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+31% /
+31%
1.26/3.02
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
3.62/1.09
-6%
/
-38%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+83%
/
+14%
48%
Ball Possession
52%
11
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Target
6
4
Corners
6
303 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
434 · 81%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
3.3
Yellow Cards
3.0
Farsta vs Arlanda Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Farsta
0W-1D-0L
AWAY
Arlanda
4.00
Avg Goals (FT)
4.00
45%
Ball Possession
55%
12
Total Shots
15
7
Shots on Target
8
4
Corners
4
2
Yellow Cards
4
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Farsta vs Arlanda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Arlanda cruised past Farsta 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
As we said in the preview, our model had Arlanda as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Farsta vs Arlanda?
Farsta 0-4 Arlanda in the Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Farsta vs Arlanda?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arlanda win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Farsta 28%, draw 27%, Arlanda 45%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arlanda), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Arlanda)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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İSÇ4
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27 Sep 2024