Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 Richards Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
75%
1.3
Draw
16%
4.49
Away
9%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
3.05
No
62%
1.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.44
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
4.34
6+ Goals
9%
23.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
29%
X/2
3%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
3%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
75%
Home Win
72%
+3.0pp
16%
Draw
19%
-3.6pp
9%
Away Win
8%
+0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
29%
+9.7pp
62%
BTTS No
71%
-9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Richards Bay EU Bookmakers 11%
+5% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.62/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/1.25
+61% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +53%
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
406 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 217 · 72%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.9
12.7 Crosses 13.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Richards Bay
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.47 xG 0.48
71% Ball Possession 29%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
616 Passes 193
90% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 11
12 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
03.08.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 HT 2-0 Richards Bay Richards Bay GAF8K
30.04.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 HT 2-0 Richards Bay Richards Bay GAFPSL
28.12.2024 Richards Bay Richards Bay 0-2 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
02.04.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 HT 0-0 Richards Bay Richards Bay GAFPSL
23.08.2023 Richards Bay Richards Bay 0-1 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
07.02.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 3-2 HT 1-1 Richards Bay Richards Bay GAF8K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
4-1
AWAY Richards Bay
3.70 xG 1.00
73% Ball Possession 27%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
543 Passes 151
87% Pass Accuracy 68%
21 Box Touches 9
9 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns cruised past Richards Bay 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 73% of the ball to Richards Bay's 27%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 3.70 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.33 for Richards Bay.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay?

Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 Richards Bay in the South Afrika - Premier League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Richards Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 75%, draw 16%, Richards Bay 9%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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