Ajax 2-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 27 Sep 2025

Ajax
2-1 HT 1-1
NAC Breda
📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Ajax vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
82%
1.3
Draw
12%
4.95
Away
6%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.43
Over 2.5
59%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.87
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
27%
2.67
6+ Goals
17%
6.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.49
1/2
2%
34.5
1/X
3%
20.5
X/1
28%
3.82
X/2
2%
18.35
X/X
5%
8.11
2/1
15%
20.8
2/2
2%
15.35
2/X
4%
23.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
82%
Home Win
72%
+10.1pp
12%
Draw
17%
-4.9pp
6%
Away Win
11%
-5.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
2.67/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/2.33
+11% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +13%
60% Ball Possession 40%
22 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
424 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 74%
46.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
22.4 Crosses 13.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Ajax vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
5W-0D-1L
AWAY NAC Breda
3.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.97 xG 0.83
70% Ball Possession 30%
23 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
580 Passes 209
89% Pass Accuracy 73%
48 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
06.04.2025 Ajax Ajax 3-1 HT 2-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
18.08.2024 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
17.02.2019 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
24.11.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-3 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
04.02.2018 Ajax Ajax 3-1 HT 2-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
18.11.2017 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-8 HT 0-5 Ajax Ajax HOL

Ajax 2-1 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
2-1
AWAY NAC Breda
2.00 xG 1.56
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
372 Passes 345
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 33
7 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ajax vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax squeezed past NAC Breda 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 82%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Ajax had 51% of the ball to NAC Breda's 49%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 2.00 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.83 goals for Ajax and 0.67 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Ajax vs NAC Breda?

Ajax 2-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 82%, with the full match-result split Ajax 82%, draw 12%, NAC Breda 6%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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