Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
5.4
Draw
17%
4.62
Away
67%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.96
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.91
2-3 Goals
35%
2.19
4-5 Goals
28%
2.39
6+ Goals
15%
4.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
10.0
1/2
11%
17.4
1/X
4%
18.4
X/1
7%
14.25
X/2 EV+ ✓
28%
4.26
X/X
6%
8.5
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
28%
1.64
2/X
6%
16.4
Value flag · X/2 at 4.26 — our 28% vs market 18.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
15%
+1.3pp
17%
Draw
18%
-1.6pp
67%
Away Win
66%
+0.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-9.2pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 71%
+12% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.03/1.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.41/0.95
+8% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -11%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
269 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 83%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.8
15.9 Crosses 21.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
0W-0D-6L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
0.84 xG 3.48
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 10
276 Passes 592
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 49
10 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
14.01.2025 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-4 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOK
02.04.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 0-2 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
13.01.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
08.04.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 4-0 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
28.08.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 1-6 HT 0-3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
02.03.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 0-2 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
1-2
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
2.17 xG 2.90
36% Ball Possession 64%
18 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 2
253 Passes 533
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 33
20 Crosses 8
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven squeezed past Excelsior 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Excelsior had 36% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 64%, shots finished 18-18, expected goals 2.17 to 2.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Excelsior and 3.67 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?

Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 17%, draw 17%, PSV Eindhoven 67%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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