Jubilo Iwata 3-4 Omiya Ardija — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.85
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
26%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
9.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.2pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.2pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -14%
1.54/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.08
+18% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.9 Crosses 15.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jubilo Iwata
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Omiya Ardija
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
443 Passes 243
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
44 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
31.05.2025 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 2-2 HT 1-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
09.09.2023 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-2 HT 1-1 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
11.03.2023 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-0 HT 0-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
30.10.2021 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-2 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP2
21.04.2021 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 3-2 HT 1-1 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
06.12.2020 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-0 HT 2-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jubilo Iwata
3-4
AWAY Omiya Ardija
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 22
12 Shots on Target 15
3 Corners 7
331 Passes 354
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Jubilo Iwata vs Omiya Ardija
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Omiya Ardija edged past Jubilo Iwata 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 41% / 21% / 37% — and on the day Omiya Ardija made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Jubilo Iwata had 49% of the ball to Omiya Ardija's 51%, shots finished 17-22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jubilo Iwata had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Jubilo Iwata and 1.33 for Omiya Ardija.

What was the final score of Jubilo Iwata vs Omiya Ardija?

Jubilo Iwata 3-4 Omiya Ardija in the Japan - J2 League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jubilo Iwata vs Omiya Ardija?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jubilo Iwata win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Jubilo Iwata 41%, draw 21%, Omiya Ardija 37%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jubilo Iwata) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jubilo Iwata) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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