Montedio Yamagata 2-1 Renofa Yamaguchi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.78
6+ Goals
11%
17.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.9pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -6%
1.36/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.19
-2% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.4 Crosses 19.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
328 Passes 250
75% Pass Accuracy 64%
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
18.05.2025 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 HT 1-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
06.10.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 2-0 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
06.05.2024 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 2-0 HT 2-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
05.07.2023 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
29.04.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-1 HT 1-1 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
06.08.2022 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 0-1 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2-1
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 14
15 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
334 Passes 188
72% Pass Accuracy 65%
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs Renofa Yamaguchi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata squeezed past Renofa Yamaguchi 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Montedio Yamagata as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 62% of the ball to Renofa Yamaguchi's 38%, shots finished 18-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Renofa Yamaguchi led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 0.83 for Renofa Yamaguchi.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Montedio Yamagata 2-1 Renofa Yamaguchi in the Japan - J2 League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montedio Yamagata win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 42%, draw 25%, Renofa Yamaguchi 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Montedio Yamagata), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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