Montevideo Wanderers 0-1 Cerro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.27
No
56%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+1.1pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.3pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.5pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montevideo Wanderers EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.25/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.24
-6% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
410 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montevideo Wanderers
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Cerro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2025 Cerro Cerro 1-2 HT 1-1 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
01.04.2025 Cerro Cerro 2-1 HT 1-1 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
17.08.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
18.02.2024 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
04.11.2023 Cerro Cerro 0-1 HT 0-1 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
26.03.2023 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 3-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montevideo Wanderers
0-1
AWAY Cerro
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro nicked a narrow win over Montevideo Wanderers 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Montevideo Wanderers at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Montevideo Wanderers had 53% of the ball to Cerro's 47%, shots finished 12-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montevideo Wanderers had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Montevideo Wanderers and 0.67 for Cerro.

What was the final score of Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro?

Montevideo Wanderers 0-1 Cerro in the Uruguay - Premier League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montevideo Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Montevideo Wanderers 44%, draw 31%, Cerro 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Montevideo Wanderers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montevideo Wanderers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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URU More Uruguay - Premier League
27 Sep 2025
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