Avellino 6-0 ACR Messina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.64
6+ Goals
8%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 30% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
69%
-13.0pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.6pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+8.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.0pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avellino EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 14%
-18% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.29/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.64
-29% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +5%
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avellino
2W-1D-3L
AWAY ACR Messina
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
11.02.2024 Avellino Avellino 0-1 HT 0-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
01.10.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-0 HT 1-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
22.01.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 2-0 HT 1-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
18.09.2022 Avellino Avellino 2-1 HT 1-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
20.03.2022 Avellino Avellino 1-1 HT 1-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
14.11.2021 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-1 HT 0-1 Avellino Avellino İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avellino
6-0
AWAY ACR Messina
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Avellino vs ACR Messina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avellino ran out comfortable winners over ACR Messina 6-0. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Avellino as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 6-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Avellino had 57% of the ball to ACR Messina's 43%, shots finished 15-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, ACR Messina led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Avellino and 1.00 for ACR Messina.

What was the final score of Avellino vs ACR Messina?

Avellino 6-0 ACR Messina in the Italy - Serie C on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avellino vs ACR Messina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avellino win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Avellino 56%, draw 25%, ACR Messina 20%. The final score 6-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avellino), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avellino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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