Marathon 1-2 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
67%
-9.9pp
27%
Draw
20%
+7.2pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+2.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marathon EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 16%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
2.07/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.51
+4% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
420 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marathon
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
18.08.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-0 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
10.03.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-1 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
21.01.2024 Marathon Marathon 3-1 HT 3-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
26.11.2023 Marathon Marathon 3-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
22.09.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-3 HT 0-2 Marathon Marathon HON
07.04.2023 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lobos UPNFM edged past Marathon 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Marathon at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marathon had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Marathon and 0.83 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM?

Marathon 1-2 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marathon vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Marathon 57%, draw 27%, Lobos UPNFM 16%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Marathon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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