Orange County SC 3-2 Hartford Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.34
6+ Goals
11%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.6 — our 31% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.20/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.95
-11% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 75%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
18.0 Crosses 17.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Hartford Athletic
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.51 xG 2.14
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
170 Passes 377
64% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 26
5 Yellow Cards 6
01.04.2023 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 1-1 HT 1-1 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
3-2
AWAY Hartford Athletic
1.78 xG 1.88
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
310 Passes 422
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs Hartford Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orange County SC edged past Hartford Athletic 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Orange County SC as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Orange County SC had 43% of the ball to Hartford Athletic's 57%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.78 to 1.88.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs Hartford Athletic?

Orange County SC 3-2 Hartford Athletic in the USL Championship on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs Hartford Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 44%, draw 26%, Hartford Athletic 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orange County SC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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