Kwara United 1-0 Heartland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 27 Nov 2024

📅27/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.51
Over 2.5
36%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.67
No
58%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
62%
-8.9pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+8.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
33%
+8.3pp
58%
BTTS No
67%
-8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kwara United EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Heartland EU Bookmakers 16%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.45/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.73
-11% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
355 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kwara United
1W-3D-0L
AWAY Heartland
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
23.06.2024 Kwara United Kwara United 4-0 HT 2-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
25.01.2024 Heartland Heartland 1-1 HT 0-0 Kwara United Kwara United NIJ
25.07.2021 Heartland Heartland 0-0 HT 0-0 Kwara United Kwara United NIJ
14.03.2021 Kwara United Kwara United 0-0 HT 0-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
POST-MATCH Kwara United vs Heartland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kwara United nicked a narrow win over Heartland 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kwara United as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Kwara United had the better of it with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Kwara United and 0.25 for Heartland.

What was the final score of Kwara United vs Heartland?

Kwara United 1-0 Heartland in the Nigeria NPFL on 27/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kwara United vs Heartland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kwara United win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Kwara United 53%, draw 25%, Heartland 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kwara United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kwara United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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