Parma 1-0 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Dec 2025

📅27/12/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.85
6+ Goals
9%
17.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.68
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
27.5
1/X
11%
13.5
X/1
13%
7.52
X/2
15%
4.93
X/X
7%
4.24
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
19%
2.91
2/X
8%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+4.6pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.8pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-0.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.2pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
1.22/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.09
-45% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
19.6 Crosses 18.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
0W-6D-0L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.35 xG 1.19
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
309 Passes 483
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
13.04.2025 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-0 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTA
17.08.2024 Parma Parma 1-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
06.12.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 0-2 Parma Parma İTK
20.07.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 Parma Parma HAZ
07.03.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 3-3 HT 2-1 Parma Parma İTA
07.11.2020 Parma Parma 0-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
1-0
AWAY Fiorentina
0.95 xG 1.23
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
261 Passes 392
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
24 Box Touches 35
21 Crosses 35
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parma vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma edged past Fiorentina 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fiorentina at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Parma had 42% of the ball to Fiorentina's 58%, shots finished 13-23, expected goals 0.95 to 1.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 6 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Parma and 1.17 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Parma vs Fiorentina?

Parma 1-0 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 27/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Parma 32%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ BTTS Yes
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