28/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-1
Sansepolcro vs Livorno Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
Over
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2-3
43%
4-5
18%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
50%
Home Win
43%
23%
Draw
25%
27%
Away Win
32%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sansepolcro v Livorno — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Sansepolcro
The Market 47%
Head to Head
AWAY
Livorno
The Market 36%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
49%
Ball Possession
51%
13
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
301 · 77%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
351 · 79%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Sansepolcro vs Livorno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Sansepolcro and Livorno couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.
Our pre-match lean was Sansepolcro at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.
What was the final score of Sansepolcro vs Livorno?
Sansepolcro 1-1 Livorno in the Italy - Serie D on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sansepolcro vs Livorno?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sansepolcro win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sansepolcro 50%, draw 23%, Livorno 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sansepolcro), BTTS No went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Sansepolcro)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İTD
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28 Jan 2024