Southport 1-4 Spennymoor Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 28 Jan 2025

📅28/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
4.06
6+ Goals
8%
20.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 33% vs market 31.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+4.0pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.5pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.0pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southport EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Spennymoor Town EU Bookmakers 39%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +19%
1.18/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.17
-10% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southport
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Spennymoor Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.08.2024 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
06.02.2024 Southport Southport 1-2 HT 1-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
15.08.2023 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 5-1 HT 3-1 Southport Southport İCON
18.04.2023 Southport Southport 1-3 HT 0-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
25.10.2022 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Southport Southport İCON
23.04.2022 Southport Southport 1-1 HT 0-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southport
1-4
AWAY Spennymoor Town
56% Ball Possession 44%
4 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Southport vs Spennymoor Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spennymoor Town swept aside Southport 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; Spennymoor Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Southport had 56% of the ball to Spennymoor Town's 44%, shots finished 4-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spennymoor Town led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Southport and 2.17 for Spennymoor Town.

What was the final score of Southport vs Spennymoor Town?

Southport 1-4 Spennymoor Town in the England - Conference on 28/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southport vs Spennymoor Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Southport win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Southport 40%, draw 25%, Spennymoor Town 35%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Southport) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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