Deportes Tolima 2-0 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 28 Jan 2025

📅28/01/2025 · 🕒04:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.53
No
58%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
61%
-12.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+10.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.7pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
36%
+6.4pp
58%
BTTS No
64%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 17%
+0% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.34/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.25
+1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
368 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 76%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.6
17.5 Crosses 11.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.18 xG 0.73
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
316 Passes 262
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.10.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOLK
18.09.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-2 HT 1-2 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOLK
24.07.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
27.01.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-4 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
18.09.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-2 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
11.04.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
2-0
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
1.34 xG 0.42
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 1
403 Passes 248
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 5
17 Crosses 3
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima got the better of Deportivo Pasto 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Deportes Tolima as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 61% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 39%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.34 to 0.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Deportes Tolima and 1.17 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

Deportes Tolima 2-0 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 28/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 49%, draw 27%, Deportivo Pasto 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportes Tolima), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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