Treaty United 3-1 Finn Harps — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 28 Feb 2025

📅28/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
2.98
2-3 Goals
45%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.53
6+ Goals
8%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 27% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
9%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
51%
+0.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Treaty United EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 27%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
2.33/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.64
+51% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
310 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Treaty United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Finn Harps
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
18.10.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-2 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
26.07.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 1-0 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
03.05.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-0 HT 0-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
29.03.2024 Treaty United Treaty United 0-1 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
06.10.2023 Treaty United Treaty United 2-0 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
11.08.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-1 HT 0-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
POST-MATCH Treaty United vs Finn Harps
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Treaty United got the better of Finn Harps 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Treaty United as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Treaty United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Treaty United and 0.50 for Finn Harps.

What was the final score of Treaty United vs Finn Harps?

Treaty United 3-1 Finn Harps in the Ireland - 1st Division on 28/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Treaty United vs Finn Harps?

Before kick-off our model rated a Treaty United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Treaty United 51%, draw 26%, Finn Harps 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Treaty United) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Treaty United) ✗ Under 2.5
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