Falkirk 5-1 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 28 Feb 2026

Falkirk
5-1 HT 3-1
Kilmarnock
📅28/02/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2025/2026

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.66
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
18%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
11%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 29% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.15
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.45
X/1 EV+ ✗
28%
4.16
X/2
4%
9.36
X/X
9%
5.38
2/1
10%
22.25
2/2
9%
7.39
2/X
8%
15.95
Value flag · X/1 at 4.16 — our 28% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
56%
+3.5pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.0pp
18%
Away Win
21%
-2.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Falkirk v Kilmarnock — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Falkirk EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 24%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.22/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.61
+0% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
328 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 70%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
21.3 Crosses 20.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Falkirk
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.76 xG 0.81
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
260 Passes 290
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
12 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.12.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-1 HT 0-0 Falkirk Falkirk İKP
01.11.2025 Falkirk Falkirk 3-1 HT 3-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
04.09.2021 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 3-1 HT 1-1 Falkirk Falkirk İKCK
06.10.2020 Falkirk Falkirk 3-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKLK
22.05.2016 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 4-0 HT 2-0 Falkirk Falkirk İKCL
19.05.2016 Falkirk Falkirk 1-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKCL
POST-MATCH Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Falkirk ran out comfortable winners over Kilmarnock 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Falkirk as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Falkirk had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Falkirk and 1.33 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?

Falkirk 5-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Falkirk win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Falkirk 59%, draw 22%, Kilmarnock 18%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Falkirk) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Falkirk) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İKP More Scotland - Premiership
28 Feb 2026
18:00 Livingston vs St. Mirren Analysis →
18:00 Dundee FC vs Hibernian Analysis →
18:00 Motherwell vs Dundee United Analysis →
18:00 Hearts vs Aberdeen Analysis →