MVV Maastricht 1-2 Emmen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
46%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
2.86
6+ Goals
13%
8.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.44
1/2
9%
21.9
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
10%
7.91
X/2
14%
4.91
X/X
8%
5.53
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
33.0
2/2
23%
2.6
2/X
9%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 33.0 — our 10% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
46%
Away Win
48%
-2.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.8pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Emmen EU Bookmakers 52%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +19%
1.30/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.01
+7% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +54%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
290 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 77%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
17.0 Crosses 17.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Emmen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.61 xG 1.59
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
327 Passes 414
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.10.2024 Emmen Emmen 1-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
12.04.2024 Emmen Emmen 1-3 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
06.11.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
17.12.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
10.09.2021 Emmen Emmen 7-1 HT 3-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
02.04.2018 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
1-2
AWAY Emmen
2.34 xG 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
449 Passes 320
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Emmen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emmen nicked a narrow win over MVV Maastricht 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Emmen as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 58% of the ball to Emmen's 42%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.34 to 0.83 — on chances, MVV Maastricht could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MVV Maastricht and 2.00 for Emmen.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Emmen?

MVV Maastricht 1-2 Emmen in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Emmen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Emmen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 30%, draw 24%, Emmen 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Emmen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Emmen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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