Emmen 1-1 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.41
2-3 Goals
40%
2.0
4-5 Goals
25%
2.68
6+ Goals
12%
6.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.99
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
16%
4.18
X/2
12%
10.6
X/X
9%
6.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.85
2/2
10%
7.09
2/X
9%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.85 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-11.6pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.3pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+8.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.4pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emmen EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 23%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +24%
1.41/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.62
-21% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
445 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 73%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
25.0 Crosses 15.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emmen
4W-1D-1L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.62 xG 0.42
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
419 Passes 334
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
12.04.2024 Emmen Emmen 1-3 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
06.11.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
17.12.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
10.09.2021 Emmen Emmen 7-1 HT 3-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
02.04.2018 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
27.11.2017 Emmen Emmen 2-1 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emmen
1-1
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.50 xG 1.39
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
391 Passes 298
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Emmen vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emmen and MVV Maastricht shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Emmen at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Emmen had 55% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 45%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.50 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Emmen and 1.00 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Emmen vs MVV Maastricht?

Emmen 1-1 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emmen vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emmen win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Emmen 46%, draw 25%, MVV Maastricht 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Emmen), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Emmen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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