Sporting Gijon 0-3 Villarreal II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.8
Over 2.5
37%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
1.9
No
64%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
3.11
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 37% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
16%
3.97
X/2
8%
11.0
X/X
14%
4.54
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
10%
8.96
2/X
5%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+5.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
52%
+11.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
48%
-11.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
49%
-12.3pp
64%
BTTS No
51%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal II EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.25/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.57
-14% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
371 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
21.8 Crosses 12.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Gijon
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Villarreal II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.10 xG 1.64
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
328 Passes 333
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 0
04.11.2023 Villarreal II Villarreal II 0-3 HT 0-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
07.05.2023 Villarreal II Villarreal II 2-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
07.10.2022 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 3-1 HT 2-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Gijon
0-3
AWAY Villarreal II
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
465 Passes 332
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
POST-MATCH Sporting Gijon vs Villarreal II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal II swept aside Sporting Gijon 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Gijon at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (64%) landed while under 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, Sporting Gijon had 57% of the ball to Villarreal II's 43%, shots finished 12-16.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sporting Gijon had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Sporting Gijon and 1.00 for Villarreal II.

What was the final score of Sporting Gijon vs Villarreal II?

Sporting Gijon 0-3 Villarreal II in the Spain - 2nd Division on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Gijon vs Villarreal II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Gijon win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sporting Gijon 50%, draw 28%, Villarreal II 22%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Sporting Gijon), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Gijon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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