Alvarado 1-0 San Miguel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 28 Apr 2024

Alvarado
1-0 HT 1-0
San Miguel
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Argentina - National Primera Liga – 2024

Alvarado vs San Miguel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.38
Over 2.5
34%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.29
No
61%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-3.9pp
31%
Draw
32%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.9pp
66%
Under 2.5
69%
-2.6pp
34%
Over 2.5
31%
+2.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.2pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alvarado v San Miguel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alvarado EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY San Miguel EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.34/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/0.49
+13% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +113%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
279 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Alvarado vs San Miguel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alvarado edged past San Miguel 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 31% / 33% — and on the day Alvarado made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

What was the final score of Alvarado vs San Miguel?

Alvarado 1-0 San Miguel in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alvarado vs San Miguel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alvarado win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Alvarado 36%, draw 31%, San Miguel 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alvarado), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alvarado) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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