Arsenal Tula 3-3 Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-1.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Alaniya Vladikavkaz EU Bookmakers 26%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.86/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.70
+27% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal Tula
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2023 Alaniya Vladikavkaz Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
01.05.2023 Alaniya Vladikavkaz Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2-1 HT 1-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUS1
10.10.2022 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 0-2 HT 0-1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz Alaniya Vladikavkaz RUS1
02.03.2022 Alaniya Vladikavkaz Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal Tula
3-3
AWAY Alaniya Vladikavkaz
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal Tula vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal Tula and Alaniya Vladikavkaz couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal Tula at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Arsenal Tula had 49% of the ball to Alaniya Vladikavkaz's 51%, shots finished 15-8.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Alaniya Vladikavkaz led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.50 for Alaniya Vladikavkaz.

What was the final score of Arsenal Tula vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz?

Arsenal Tula 3-3 Alaniya Vladikavkaz in the Russia - FNL on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Tula vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal Tula win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Tula 49%, draw 25%, Alaniya Vladikavkaz 26%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Tula) ✗ Under 2.5
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