Export Sebaco 2-1 Deportivo Ocotal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.15
Over 2.5
43%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
67%
-11.2pp
27%
Draw
20%
+6.4pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+4.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
43%
+14.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
57%
-14.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.6pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Export Sebaco EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Ocotal EU Bookmakers 16%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
2.57/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/2.87
+26% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -25%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Export Sebaco
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Ocotal
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.11.2024 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal 0-3 HT 0-1 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
23.09.2024 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 4-0 HT 4-0 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal NİK
25.04.2024 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal 3-0 HT 1-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
10.03.2024 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 2-3 HT 0-1 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal NİK
13.11.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 3-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal NİK
14.09.2023 Deportivo Ocotal Deportivo Ocotal 1-3 HT 0-2 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
POST-MATCH Export Sebaco vs Deportivo Ocotal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Export Sebaco nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Ocotal 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Export Sebaco as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Export Sebaco had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Export Sebaco and 1.33 for Deportivo Ocotal.

What was the final score of Export Sebaco vs Deportivo Ocotal?

Export Sebaco 2-1 Deportivo Ocotal in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Export Sebaco vs Deportivo Ocotal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Export Sebaco win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Export Sebaco 55%, draw 27%, Deportivo Ocotal 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Export Sebaco) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Export Sebaco) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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