Maritimo U23 1-0 Estrela U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 28 Apr 2026

📅28/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
34%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
34%
Away Win
40%
-6.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+10.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-10.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo U23 EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela U23 EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.21/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-20% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +52%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
262 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo U23
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Estrela U23
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
19.02.2026 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 0-1 HT 0-0 Maritimo U23 Maritimo U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo U23
1-0
AWAY Estrela U23
56% Ball Possession 44%
6 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Maritimo U23 vs Estrela U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo U23 edged past Estrela U23 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Maritimo U23 made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Maritimo U23 had 56% of the ball to Estrela U23's 44%, shots finished 6-10.

What was the final score of Maritimo U23 vs Estrela U23?

Maritimo U23 1-0 Estrela U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 28/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo U23 vs Estrela U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Maritimo U23 37%, draw 29%, Estrela U23 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo U23), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo U23) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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