Libertad 2-2 Alianza Lima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 28 May 2025

📅28/05/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.46
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.54
Over 2.5
44%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.29
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
4.86
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.9
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
9%
13.85
X/1
17%
5.36
X/2
8%
5.83
X/X
13%
3.73
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
19%
4.44
2/X
5%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.9pp
26%
Draw
31%
-4.2pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
61%
-5.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
39%
+5.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.1pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 36%
+14% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.38/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.32
-3% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
11.1 Crosses 19.2
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Alianza Lima
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.44 xG 0.72
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
250 Passes 261
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.04.2025 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 0-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad LKU
24.05.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-2 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad LKU
21.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-2 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima LKU
13.04.2012 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-2 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad LKU
10.02.2012 Libertad Libertad 4-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-2
AWAY Alianza Lima
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
420 Passes 226
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Alianza Lima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad and Alianza Lima couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Libertad had 62% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 38%, shots finished 13-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Libertad and 1.00 for Alianza Lima.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Alianza Lima?

Libertad 2-2 Alianza Lima in the Copa Libertadores on 28/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Alianza Lima?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Libertad 42%, draw 26%, Alianza Lima 32%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LKU More Copa Libertadores
28 May 2025
01:00 Sao Paulo vs Talleres Cordoba Analysis →
03:30 Botafogo vs Universidad Chile Analysis →
03:30 Estudiantes vs Carabobo Analysis →
03:30 Independiente Del Valle vs Barcelona SC Analysis →
03:30 River Plate vs Universitario Analysis →