Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Barcelona SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 28 May 2025

📅28/05/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
28%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.09
2-3 Goals
35%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
2.89
6+ Goals
13%
8.57
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 30% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.89
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.85
X/1
13%
4.12
X/2
8%
11.85
X/X
11%
6.37
2/1
9%
20.95
2/2
14%
9.33
2/X
9%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
61%
-14.7pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.4pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+10.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+12.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-12.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.9pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona SC EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +2%
1.95/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.18
-16% / +73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +33%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 75%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
26.6 Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Barcelona SC
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.37 xG 0.90
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
377 Passes 230
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
02.04.2025 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle LKU
09.03.2025 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 0-4 HT 0-2 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
11.08.2024 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 3-2 HT 3-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
10.03.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-1 HT 3-1 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
19.08.2023 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 1-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
19.03.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 1-0 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
2-1
AWAY Barcelona SC
0.78 xG 0.59
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
395 Passes 203
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 6
24 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Barcelona SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle edged past Barcelona SC 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 63% of the ball to Barcelona SC's 37%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 0.78 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.00 for Barcelona SC.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Barcelona SC?

Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Barcelona SC in the Copa Libertadores on 28/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Barcelona SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 46%, draw 26%, Barcelona SC 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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