Deportivo Moron 1-1 Atletico Rafaela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒01:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
71%
1.36
Over 2.5
29%
2.98
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
2.6
No
69%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
45%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.0pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+6.8pp
71%
Under 2.5
70%
+0.6pp
29%
Over 2.5
30%
-0.6pp
31%
BTTS Yes
34%
-2.9pp
69%
BTTS No
66%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Moron EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Rafaela EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.15/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.26
-7% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
388 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Moron
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Atletico Rafaela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Corners 10
09.03.2024 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 1-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron ARJPBN
24.03.2022 Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
23.09.2021 Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
11.09.2021 Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
02.05.2021 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 3-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Rafaela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Moron and Atletico Rafaela shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Moron at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (71%) landed while no to both teams scoring (69%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Deportivo Moron had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportivo Moron and 0.80 for Atletico Rafaela.

What was the final score of Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Rafaela?

Deportivo Moron 1-1 Atletico Rafaela in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Rafaela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Moron win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Moron 42%, draw 29%, Atletico Rafaela 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportivo Moron), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Moron) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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