Patronato 1-3 Alvarado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
2.05
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
18%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.36
Over 2.5
37%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.44
No
67%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
45%
+7.0pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.5pp
18%
Away Win
24%
-6.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
70%
-7.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
30%
+7.0pp
33%
BTTS Yes
37%
-4.1pp
67%
BTTS No
63%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Patronato EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Alvarado EU Bookmakers 28%
-10% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
0.90/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.22
-28% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
217 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Patronato
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Alvarado
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
11.03.2024 Alvarado Alvarado 2-0 HT 2-0 Patronato Patronato ARJPBN
08.07.2023 Alvarado Alvarado 2-0 HT 1-0 Patronato Patronato ARJPBN
07.03.2023 Patronato Patronato 6-0 HT 4-0 Alvarado Alvarado ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Patronato vs Alvarado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alvarado saw off Patronato 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Patronato at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (67%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Alvarado led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Patronato and 1.33 for Alvarado.

What was the final score of Patronato vs Alvarado?

Patronato 1-3 Alvarado in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Patronato vs Alvarado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Patronato win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Patronato 52%, draw 30%, Alvarado 18%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Patronato) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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