St. Louis 2-1 FC Dallas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Concacaf League Cup, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
37%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.89
6+ Goals
10%
8.31
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 27% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
56%
-19.4pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.6pp
36%
Away Win
21%
+15.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.7pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Louis EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
381 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Louis
2-1
AWAY FC Dallas
2.46 xG 1.95
46% Ball Possession 54%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
333 Passes 394
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Louis vs FC Dallas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Louis nicked a narrow win over FC Dallas 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 36% — and on the day St. Louis made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, St. Louis had 46% of the ball to FC Dallas's 54%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 2.46 to 1.95.

What was the final score of St. Louis vs FC Dallas?

St. Louis 2-1 FC Dallas in the Concacaf League Cup on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Louis vs FC Dallas?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Louis win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split St. Louis 37%, draw 26%, FC Dallas 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Louis), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Louis) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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