Beijing Guoan 8-1 Changchun YaTai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒14:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.79
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.04
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1
21%
3.86
X/2
7%
10.35
X/X
15%
5.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.3
2/2
12%
7.93
2/X
5%
16.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-8.5pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.4pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+4.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.4pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 22%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.02/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/2.07
-21% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
27.5 Crosses 21.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beijing Guoan
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Changchun YaTai
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.01 xG 1.14
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
391 Passes 262
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
32 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2024 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 3-2 HT 1-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
22.09.2023 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-1 HT 1-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
02.06.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 4-3 HT 2-1 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
15.12.2022 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 3-0 HT 1-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
24.10.2022 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 0-1 HT 0-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
12.08.2021 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 2-1 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beijing Guoan
8-1
AWAY Changchun YaTai
4.03 xG 1.90
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 21
9 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 8
256 Passes 330
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 39
6 Crosses 39
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Beijing Guoan vs Changchun YaTai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beijing Guoan swept aside Changchun YaTai 8-1. Half-time: 4-1. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Beijing Guoan as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 8-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Beijing Guoan had 44% of the ball to Changchun YaTai's 56%, shots finished 12-21, expected goals 4.03 to 1.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Beijing Guoan had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.33 for Changchun YaTai.

What was the final score of Beijing Guoan vs Changchun YaTai?

Beijing Guoan 8-1 Changchun YaTai in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beijing Guoan vs Changchun YaTai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Beijing Guoan win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Beijing Guoan 49%, draw 27%, Changchun YaTai 23%. The final score 8-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Beijing Guoan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Beijing Guoan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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