Shenzhen FC 1-4 Shandong Taishan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.12
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.76
6+ Goals
8%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 30% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.79
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
8%
4.43
X/2
7%
7.07
X/X
18%
4.58
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2 EV+ ✗
21%
5.33
2/X
4%
14.15
Value flag · 2/2 at 5.33 — our 21% vs market 14.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
-9.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+6.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.6pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shenzhen FC EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Shandong Taishan EU Bookmakers 30%
-44% / -44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.27/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.42
-38% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +94%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
22.0 Crosses 14.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shenzhen FC
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Shandong Taishan
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.48 xG 2.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 6
258 Passes 437
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 36
7 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2024 Shandong Taishan Shandong Taishan 3-2 HT 2-1 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİNSL
25.08.2023 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 1-2 HT 1-0 Shandong Taishan Shandong Taishan ÇİNSL
24.05.2023 Shandong Taishan Shandong Taishan 3-0 HT 1-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN
19.12.2022 Shandong Taishan Shandong Taishan 8-0 HT 3-0 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİNSL
24.09.2022 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC 0-4 HT 0-1 Shandong Taishan Shandong Taishan ÇİN
05.08.2021 Shandong Taishan Shandong Taishan 4-2 HT 4-2 Shenzhen FC Shenzhen FC ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shenzhen FC
1-4
AWAY Shandong Taishan
1.06 xG 2.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
348 Passes 317
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shenzhen FC vs Shandong Taishan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shandong Taishan ran out comfortable winners over Shenzhen FC 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Shandong Taishan found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shenzhen FC had 52% of the ball to Shandong Taishan's 48%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 1.06 to 2.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shandong Taishan led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Shenzhen FC and 4.00 for Shandong Taishan.

What was the final score of Shenzhen FC vs Shandong Taishan?

Shenzhen FC 1-4 Shandong Taishan in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shenzhen FC vs Shandong Taishan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shenzhen FC win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Shenzhen FC 38%, draw 29%, Shandong Taishan 33%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shenzhen FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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