Boston United 1-2 Maidenhead United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.9
Over
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.42
2-3
38%
1.79
4-5
25%
3.47
6+
10%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.42 — our 27% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.38
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
16%
5.25
X/2
8%
6.01
X/X
11%
4.6
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
18%
4.09
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.8pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boston United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Maidenhead United EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -18%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -36%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.1
POST-MATCH Boston United vs Maidenhead United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maidenhead United squeezed past Boston United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Maidenhead United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

What was the final score of Boston United vs Maidenhead United?

Boston United 1-2 Maidenhead United in the England - National League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boston United vs Maidenhead United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boston United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Boston United 40%, draw 27%, Maidenhead United 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Boston United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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