Ebbsfleet United 1-2 Oldham Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.5
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.86
Over
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.32
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
25%
3.56
6+
9%
14.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.07
1/2
5%
24.45
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
7%
8.03
X/2
20%
4.27
X/X
16%
4.74
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.5
2/X
9%
13.7
Value flag · 2/X at 13.7 — our 9% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
25%
-3.0pp
32%
Draw
26%
+6.7pp
46%
Away Win
49%
-3.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ebbsfleet United EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Oldham Athletic EU Bookmakers 54%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.14/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.50
-9% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -20%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ebbsfleet United
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Oldham Athletic
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 0-0 HT 0-0 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic İBSL
25.11.2023 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 1-4 HT 0-1 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ebbsfleet United
1-2
AWAY Oldham Athletic
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
0 Passes 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ebbsfleet United vs Oldham Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oldham Athletic edged past Ebbsfleet United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Oldham Athletic as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Ebbsfleet United had 43% of the ball to Oldham Athletic's 57%, shots finished 8-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ebbsfleet United had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ebbsfleet United and 0.50 for Oldham Athletic.

What was the final score of Ebbsfleet United vs Oldham Athletic?

Ebbsfleet United 1-2 Oldham Athletic in the England - National League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ebbsfleet United vs Oldham Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated an Oldham Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ebbsfleet United 22%, draw 32%, Oldham Athletic 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oldham Athletic), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Oldham Athletic) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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